Sample Decision Memo

Vanguard Executive Decision Memo

This is a real example of the report you receive after completing the assessment. Names and inputs are anonymized.

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Decision Under Review

Should I leave my $180K product role to launch a B2B SaaS in legal-ops automation?

1. Executive Scorecard

Order Score™
62
Sequencing is acceptable but evidence is thin.
Opportunity Score™
78
Real market pull; signal is strong from 11 buyer conversations.
Decision Readiness
54
Personal runway and offer definition are not yet in place.
Confidence Δ
+18%
Confidence rose from 41% → 59% after this assessment.
Time-to-Results
90–120d
First paid pilot likely in 12–16 weeks if sequenced correctly.
Verdict

PROCEED — but not yet at full commitment. The opportunity is real; the readiness is not. Run a 60-day proof phase before resigning.

2. Strategic Diagnosis

You have validated demand without validating delivery. Eleven buyer conversations confirm a real pain in legal-ops, but you have not packaged the offer, priced it, or stress-tested whether you can deliver it solo. Quitting now converts a high-probability bet into a forced one — you trade leverage for urgency.

3. Primary Violation™

Resource Violation

If you proceed as-is: If you proceed as-is, you will burn 4–6 months of runway before discovering you need a technical co-founder, lose negotiating leverage with early customers, and likely return to W-2 employment with a damaged narrative.

4. Risk Register (Top 5, Ranked)

  1. 1No signed letters of intent — 11 conversations is interest, not commitment.
  2. 2No co-founder or technical lead; you cannot ship the v1 alone in <90 days.
  3. 3Personal runway covers 7 months; you need 12+ for a B2B sales cycle.
  4. 4Pricing assumption ($1.2K/mo) is untested — likely off by 2–3×.
  5. 5No fallback offer; if SaaS fails, you have nothing to monetize the audience.

5. Decision Cost Analysis™

Cost of Action

Resign now: ~$45K opportunity cost in salary + benefits over 90 days, 60–70% probability of needing to re-enter the job market in 9–12 months.

Cost of Delay

Run a 60-day moonlight proof phase: $0 financial cost, ~10 hrs/week, raises evidence quality from 'interest' to 'paid pilot'.

Cost of Inaction

Stay in role indefinitely: continued $0 progress on the opportunity, ~$80K compounded opportunity cost per year, identity erosion.

6. Executive Priority™ — Your One Move This Week

Convert 3 of your 11 conversations into signed paid pilots ($500–$2K each) within the next 30 days while still employed. Pilots are the only evidence that matters.

7. Execution Plan

Next 7 Days
  • Write a one-page offer document with a fixed price and 30-day scope.
  • Email all 11 prior conversations with the offer and a 15-min booking link.
Next 30 Days
  • Convert 3 conversations into paid pilots at $500–$2K each.
  • Build the minimum manual delivery (no code) to fulfill pilot #1.
  • Track time-to-deliver and willingness-to-pay signal per pilot.
Next 90 Days
  • Convert at least 1 pilot into a $1K+/mo retainer contract.
  • Decide: resign with 2+ retainers + 12 months runway, OR shelve and stay.
  • If go: hire a fractional engineer using pilot revenue.

8. Kill Criteria

  • Stop if zero pilots convert within 45 days — demand is weaker than you think.
  • Stop if pilot delivery takes >40 hrs/week — solo path is not viable.
  • Stop if pricing falls below $400/mo — unit economics will not survive.

9. First Win Prediction

Milestone
First $1,000 of revenue from a signed pilot.
ETA
21–35 days
Probability
72%

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